New York City, March 26, 2025 – With the Democratic primary for the 2025 New York City mayoral election just months away, former Governor Andrew Cuomo has emerged as the frontrunner, commanding a substantial lead over his progressive challenger, State Assemblymember Zohran Mamdani. Recent polls conducted in March 2025 place Cuomo’s support between 39% and 41% of likely Democratic primary voters, while Mamdani trails with 15% to 18%. Simulations of the city’s ranked-choice voting system further solidify Cuomo’s dominance, projecting him to secure approximately 70% of the vote against Mamdani in a final-round matchup. As the race intensifies, voter demographics, past controversies, and campaign strategies are shaping a contest that pits Cuomo’s political experience and broad appeal against Mamdani’s grassroots momentum and progressive vision.
Cuomo, a seasoned politician who served as New York’s governor from 2011 to 2021, has leveraged his near-universal name recognition and extensive network to build a formidable campaign. Polling data from sources like Data for Progress and the Honan Strategy Group reveal that his support cuts across key demographic groups. Among Black voters, a critical constituency in New York City’s Democratic primaries, Cuomo enjoys a net favorability significantly higher than that of incumbent Mayor Eric Adams, whose approval rating among this group sits at a dismal -19%. Older voters, particularly those over 45, and individuals without college degrees also form a solid base for Cuomo, drawn to his reputation as a battle-tested executive with a record of managing crises—albeit one marred by scandal.
In contrast, Mamdani, a 33-year-old democratic socialist representing Queens in the State Assembly, has carved out a niche among younger voters, college-educated New Yorkers, and residents of Brooklyn. His campaign, buoyed by an impressive fundraising haul of over $8 million—making him the first candidate to hit the city’s matching funds cap—has resonated with those frustrated by the city’s affordability crisis and eager for bold, progressive change. Mamdani’s platform, which includes calls for rent freezes, free public transit, and city-run grocery stores, has energized a coalition of volunteers and small donors, with nearly 18,000 individual contributions fueling his rise. Yet, despite this momentum, the polls suggest that his appeal, while potent in specific pockets, struggles to match Cuomo’s citywide reach.
The stark contrast between the two candidates is perhaps most evident in the simulations of New York City’s ranked-choice voting system, implemented for city primaries in 2021. In a survey conducted by Data for Progress from March 17-24, 2025, Cuomo starts with 39% in the first round, followed by Mamdani at 15%, with other candidates like Comptroller Brad Lander (8%) and Mayor Adams (7%) trailing far behind. As lower-performing candidates are eliminated and their voters’ preferences redistributed, Cuomo steadily climbs to a commanding 70% in the final round against Mamdani’s 30%. This outcome underscores the challenge Mamdani faces: while he can consolidate progressive support, Cuomo’s broader appeal and strategic positioning make him difficult to overtake.
Demographic Divide and Campaign Dynamics
The demographic breakdown of voter preferences reveals a city divided along lines of age, education, and geography. Cuomo’s strength among Black voters—an influential bloc in Democratic primaries—reflects his efforts to reconnect with communities he courted during his governorship. His appearances at Black churches and outreach to older demographics have paid dividends, with polls showing him winning these groups by wide margins. Among voters without college degrees, Cuomo’s messaging on public safety and economic stability resonates, tapping into a desire for experienced leadership amid perceptions of a city in flux.
Mamdani, meanwhile, has found his footing among younger voters under 45, a group he leads by a 14-point margin according to Data for Progress. College-educated New Yorkers, particularly in progressive strongholds like Brooklyn, also lean toward the assemblyman, drawn to his unapologetic left-wing stances on policing, housing, and social justice. In Brooklyn, where Mayor Adams once held sway but now faces a -53% job approval rating, Mamdani’s campaign has gained traction, narrowing the gap with Cuomo more than in any other borough. This geographic edge, however, remains insufficient to offset Cuomo’s dominance elsewhere, including Manhattan, Queens, and the Bronx.
Fundraising has emerged as another battleground, with both candidates showcasing financial prowess. Cuomo, who officially entered the race earlier this month, quickly raised over $1 million in private donations, supplemented by a state-level super PAC aiming to spend $15 million on his behalf. Allies like Home Depot executive Ken Langone and investment firm Lightstone Real Estate Partners have contributed significant sums, bolstering his war chest. Mamdani, on the other hand, has relied on a grassroots approach, amassing $845,000 in the latest filing period alone and securing an additional $4 million through the city’s eight-to-one matching funds program. His campaign’s 16,000-plus donors highlight a broad base of support, though critics argue his progressive policies may alienate moderate voters crucial to a primary win.
The Shadow of COVID-19 Nursing Home Controversy
At the heart of the race lies a contentious issue from Cuomo’s past: his administration’s handling of COVID-19 in nursing homes. In March 2020, as the pandemic ravaged New York, Cuomo’s Department of Health issued an order preventing nursing homes from turning away COVID-positive patients. The policy, intended to free up hospital beds, was later criticized for contributing to thousands of deaths in long-term care facilities. An investigation by then-Attorney General Letitia James found that the state underreported nursing home deaths by as much as 50%, fueling outrage among families and lawmakers. Cuomo has denied wrongdoing, pointing to a recent Department of Justice report suggesting the Trump administration politicized the issue ahead of the 2020 election. Nevertheless, the episode remains a lightning rod.
Mamdani has seized on this controversy, framing it as a call for accountability and justice. At a March 23, 2025, event in Brooklyn’s Cobble Hill neighborhood, he joined eight other mayoral candidates—including Lander, Scott Stringer, and Jessica Ramos—at a memorial for nursing home victims. Organized by grieving families, the gathering marked the fifth anniversary of the controversial order and saw candidates unite in condemning Cuomo’s pandemic response. “This is not about partisan politics, but it is about accountability,” Mamdani declared, echoing a sentiment shared by relatives who have demanded an apology from the former governor. His campaign has since intensified its attacks, linking Cuomo’s nursing home record to broader critiques of his leadership style and ethical lapses.
Cuomo, for his part, has sought to deflect these criticisms, emphasizing his role as a steady hand during the crisis. His team has highlighted his daily briefings—once a national touchstone—and argued that the nursing home policy was a difficult but necessary decision amid unprecedented chaos. Supporters, including Congressman Ritchie Torres, who reversed his 2021 call for Cuomo’s resignation to endorse him, cite the need for “strong, steady, and stable leadership” in a city grappling with crime, housing, and economic challenges. Yet, with 23% of likely voters saying they will “definitely not” vote for him—more than the 20% who are certain supporters—the controversy continues to cast a shadow over his candidacy.
An Uphill Battle for Mamdani
Despite Mamdani’s rising profile and creative campaign tactics—such as viral social media videos and a New Year’s Day plunge into the ocean to dramatize a rent freeze—analysts see his path to victory as steep. Political strategist Trip Yang, speaking to FOX 5 New York, framed the race as “between Andrew Cuomo and whoever can eventually emerge to compete against Andrew Cuomo.” Mamdani’s second-place standing in recent polls, up from 8% in January to 18% in late March, signals growth, but his 34% ceiling in ranked-choice simulations against Cuomo’s 66% (per Empire Report New York) underscores the gap he must close.
The progressive lane, where Mamdani competes with Lander, Ramos, and State Senator Zellnor Myrie, remains crowded, potentially splitting the vote. Mamdani’s refusal to moderate his stances—unlike Lander, who has shifted toward the center—has won him loyalists but risks alienating the broader electorate. Meanwhile, Cuomo’s ability to maintain double-digit leads even before officially entering the race, as seen in a January POLITICO poll (32%), reflects a resilience that his opponents, including a weakened Mayor Adams, have struggled to counter.
As the June 24 primary nears, the 2025 NYC mayoral race is shaping up as a referendum on Cuomo’s legacy and Mamdani’s vision. With early voting set to begin in mid-June, the coming months will test whether Mamdani’s grassroots energy can overcome Cuomo’s entrenched advantages—or whether the former governor’s name recognition, financial muscle, and political savvy will once again carry the day. For now, the numbers tell a clear story: Andrew Cuomo is poised to reclaim power, while Zohran Mamdani faces an uphill climb in a city wrestling with its past and its future. 17GEN4.com
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